Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 589 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 830 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 830 AM UNTIL 500 PM EDT. TORNADOES...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF MARATHON FLORIDA TO 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT MEYERS FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS CENTER OF ISAAC MOVES TOWARD LOWER KEYS...STRENGTHENS FURTHER...AND LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS EXPAND PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE INSTABILITY ALREADY IS FAVORABLE OVER COASTAL SE FL WITH MLCAPE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG IN 12Z MFL RAOB. RICHEST BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE WILL SPREAD FARTHER WWD ACROSS SRN FL WITH TIME...AS WILL PROGRESSIVELY MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 10040. ...EDWARDS
Note: See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard information section below. The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 589 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 830 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 830 AM UNTIL 500 PM EDT. SEVERAL TORNADOES ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 65 MPH THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF MARATHON FLORIDA TO 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT MEYERS FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS CENTER OF ISAAC MOVES TOWARD LOWER KEYS...STRENGTHENS FURTHER...AND LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS EXPAND PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE INSTABILITY ALREADY IS FAVORABLE OVER COASTAL SE FL WITH MLCAPE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG IN 12Z MFL RAOB. RICHEST BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE WILL SPREAD FARTHER WWD ACROSS SRN FL WITH TIME...AS WILL PROGRESSIVELY MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 10040. ...EDWARDS
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9 WW 589 TORNADO FL CW 261230Z - 262100Z AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 15S MTH/MARATHON FL/ - 65NE FMY/FORT MEYERS FL/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /41E EYW - 43SW VRB/ WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 550.MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 10040. LAT...LON 24518223 27238233 27237990 24517986 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU9.
Watch 589 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
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Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
| Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
| Mod (30%)
|
Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
| Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
| Low (20%)
|
Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
| Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
| Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
| Mod (30%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.
