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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 194 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 215 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL KS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING FORCING FROM A STRONG VORTICITY MAX MOVING OVER WRN KS. HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AND WEAKEN THE CAP...WITH RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING EARLY STAGES OF DEEPENING CONVECTION. CURRENT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD NERN KS...WHILE OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN KS. VAD AND WIND PROFILER DATA SUPPORT SUPERCELL FORMATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035. ...WEISS
Note: See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard information section below. The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 194 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 215 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. SEVERAL TORNADOES ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL ISOLATED HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL KS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING FORCING FROM A STRONG VORTICITY MAX MOVING OVER WRN KS. HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AND WEAKEN THE CAP...WITH RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING EARLY STAGES OF DEEPENING CONVECTION. CURRENT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD NERN KS...WHILE OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN KS. VAD AND WIND PROFILER DATA SUPPORT SUPERCELL FORMATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035. ...WEISS
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4 WW 194 TORNADO KS 271915Z - 280200Z AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 30N CNK/CONCORDIA KS/ - 50SSW CNU/CHANUTE KS/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /63N SLN - 31WSW OSW/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035. LAT...LON 39959604 36999429 36999737 39959926 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU4.
Watch 194 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
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Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
| Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
| Mod (30%)
|
Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
| Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
| Low (20%)
|
Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
| Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
| Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
| High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.
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